The NFL Draft is finally upon us! It’s a second Christmas for us NFL draft fans, and with all apologies to Dame Lillard and the NBA Playoffs, it has become the t.v. event of the spring. The beautiful thing about this country* is there’s also an opportunity to make some money off of the spectacle. (*Currently in eight states, and unenforced offshore locales). Let’s get down to it.
— All odds are courtesy of pointsbet.com, a New Jersey based online sportsbook, as of 21:15 Wednesday, April 24th. —
Second Quarterback taken in the NFL Draft – Drew Lock +325:
+325 does not reflect the most recent noise surrounding the QBs. There’s also been a lot of noise about teams’ perception of his work ethic, in that he showed up and competed at the combine sort of out of shape (ran a terrible 5-second 40, body appeared “doughy” in the words of Phil Simms and Chris Simms said that’s a “red flag.”). Of course this could totally and completely be pre-draft ‘negging’ from a team that’s in love with Haskins, but these concerns started long before the last week or so.
Vis a vis Lock, Haskins has played in about a third of the college games, and offenses. Not to mention, Haskins had the benefit of having the superior team talent each and every time he stepped on the field. Lock was a constant underdog at Mizzou, in the SEC – even in the lowly east, where those perennial powers (Florida, Tennessee, Georgia) are still putting tons of dudes in the league.
Todd McShay would “hammer the over” of a hypothetical prop of Dwayne Haskins’ draft position at 6.5 (“First Draft” Podcast, April 22, 2019), whereas I don’t have a feel for who it could be — but some more traditional GM will see a ‘poor man’s Andrew Luck in Drew Lock, due to his athletic ability and the significant playing experience. Too many GM’s, Bill Parcells’ desired draftable QB traits still ring true — one of those being that the QB must’ve started 30+ games.
No, I’m not saying that is who Lock will be, but we’re attempting to predict the behaviors of an extremely diverse group of professionals who are shaped by wildly different experiences. But one thing holds true — we know they will trade up to get a QB. This is my reading the tea-leaves that Lock is considered the better ceiling and floor prospect in the eyes of more GMs.
Number of Wide Receivers Drafted in the First Round – Over 2.5
This bet is a factor of piecing together the opinions of connected experts combined with the extremely wide range — and conviction around — who the top few WRs in the class are. Taking the under here is a bet that only DK Metcalf (the ultimate “traits” WR) and only one of the Browns go in Round 1. But which Brown? A.J. or Marquise? I’ve heard both of them labeled as the best pure WR in this draft.
Combine that with Hakeem Butler being the WR1 for other scouts (one stating that he was the highest graded receiver since Julio Jones), while there’s also enough ‘noise’ around N’Keal Harry and even Paris Campbell sneaking into the First Round, that I believe this bet blows past the 2.5 by the end of the first night. It might be close at pick 18, but from there through 32, I feel comfortable that this goes over.
Enjoy, and most importantly, may the odds be ever in your favorite team’s favor!